A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
